What will the Church in North America look like in 25 Years?

I am back from a little post-Easter blog hiatus.

There are many prognosticators today who say things like, "The church looked very different after the Reformation than it did before the Reformation, and we are in a new period of Reformation. And like those who experienced the Reformation some will see the coming changes as a horrible loss and some will see them as a great blessing." Along those lines, I was at a strategic planning meeting at Fuller today where the topic was the future of theological education which involved all kinds of very interesting reflection about what the nature of the church will look like (primarily in North America) in the coming decades.

One of the pressing issues for all seminaries - not just Fuller - is the decline in students participating in the Master of Divinity program. Traditionally the MDiv was the standard degree for people going into ministry. It was considered alongside medicine and law as a professional degree and thus it has traditionally been a four-year master's degree (which makes it one of if not the longest master's degrees to attain). Some denominations (like the Presbyterians) still require someone to graduate with an MDiv from an approved seminary to qualify for ordination - but it is safe to say that the majority of evangelical denominations (like the Nazarenes) do not require any graduate education. Most seminaries started offering two-year Master of Arts programs in various areas of ministry some time ago, but they were usually add-ons to the staple MDiv degree. Now the roles are reversing.

This is a reality that seminaries have to deal with, but what interests me most is that I see the decline in MDiv programs as symptomatic of many changes taking place in and around the church. Cultural changes which are rapidly altering the way that Christians will think about and be the church in the future. Here are some of my observations:

1. Most students I know preparing for ministry want nothing to do with the institutional church. When I think about where the ministry students I had during my seven years at SNU (96-03) are today, very few of them are either senior pastors or on track to become senior pastors. Most went on to do PhD work and teach, went to work for parachurch and mission organizations, or went into some other form of staff ministry. Some who are in staff ministry may become senior pastors at some point but they will do so (most likely) without traditional forms of education preparation. I was recently on a panel of pastors that met with graduating ministry seniors at APU. It was fascinating to as a panel give advice to a group of ministry majors who overwhelmingly have no interest in replacing any of us on the panel someday.

There seem to be two other shifts that are sort of alike but also sort of in conflict but are taking place nonetheless:

2. Ministry specialization is taking place as churches become larger. In most denominations churches are getting larger and more specialized. In the Church of the Nazarene for example, we have relatively the same number of worshipers attending worship in North America each Sunday today as we did thirty years ago, but thirty years ago we only had a handful of churches over one thousand in attendance. Today, we have the same total number of people going to church but we have about sixty churches over or near 1,000 in attendance. Essentially middle-sized churches are disappearing. In large churches ministry is specialized. I am one of two traditionally trained (MDiv) pastors on a staff of eleven. The others are trained but in their specialty of ministry. I think that trend will at some level continue. I was with a very well known pastor recently who has just been officially made the "teaching pastor" at their church and another pastor has been hired as senior or "lead pastor." I'm seeing this happen more often as churches get really big. People are ministers but they are being trained in business, administration, education, music, counseling and other specializations - and are coming to the ministry from secular roles in those areas of specialization.

3. On the other side the house churches and emerging churches are almost going back to a non-professional lay-pastor model. There are many churches springing up that have a leader who has theological or biblical training but is usually bi-vocational and then other people in the congregation may also have some theological training and share the ministries of a smaller community of believers but also be essentially non-professional ministers. I not only don't find anything wrong with that, I find a lot that is admirable about it - Paul was a tent-maker. In some ways the idea of a professional clergy person is the by-product of the post-Constaninian state church culture. Now that the culture is increasingly post-Christian it makes one wonder what the post-Christian culture church will look like. Maybe it will look more like the church in Corinth than the First Church of Pasadena.

Having been raised by professional pastors and having been trained to be one, I probably should be more concerned than I am - especially since I have no other marketable skills - but I really trust that God is at work in his church and that the form of our polity and the location of our worship does not matter as much as whom we are worshiping and how we are reflecting his life in the world.

I'm excited to see how God is going to work next among us. It is going to be fascinating to see how my children and grandchildren choose to be the church in the world. What form do you think the church will take next?

Comments

[Joseph Li]

Very interesting. I'm wonder, Are these thoughts coming from a book that you're reading?

[Sarah Laughed]

One of my friends is studying to be a pastor. He said that he wishes that Christians still had catholic (lower case "c") meetings to discuss critical issues relevent to the universal Christian church. I wonder if there will be a split in the American church within the next 25 years. My friend would like to see the church to respond to homosexuality, in particular. That issue seems to be dividing a lot of Christians today. It will indeed be interesting to see how the church changes within my lifetime.

-Sarah

[Sarah Laughed]

Just to add: Although my faith informs my politics, I hope that the American church will begin to focus less on gaining political power/fighting culture wars and more on issues like healthcare, clothing and feeding the homeless, the enviornment, and having a generally loving attitude towards others. Of course, I need to stop complaining about what I want to see changed, and do my part to make it happen.

-Sarah

[Scott]

Joseph,
There are a lot of books out right now about the rapidly changing church, but my thoughts aren't from any particular book.
Scott

[Chris Johnson]

I don't know that it will change too drastically, but I like the direction it seems to be moving, with a focus on the essential and moving past (what seems to me) trivial denominational debates. My college roommate from Wheaton (and Yale MDiv scholar) will be out this week, and I'm curious to hear what he has to say on the issue.

It looks like you've got enough sermon material for a while, but do you have any plans for an eschatology series?

[Scott]

Chris,
I am going to preach as part of this series on What Christians believe about Death and Judgment (May 4). I'm really enjoying NT Wright's Surprised by Hope. It makes me think I need to preach a series or at least teach a class sometime on eschatology - but I don't have those plans right now.
Blessings - SD

[Phil Hoover-Chicago]

I have always admired the ministry of PazNaz---first became acquainted with it when Dr Steve Green (several pastors ago) was serving there.

Love your blog, by the way.

[jonathan foster]

I think we're going to see a continued move from what I'll call linear to non-linear ministry environments.

That is, instead of the church forcing a leader into a pre-formed job description complete with bullet points and an already determined salary package I see more situations where young people will compel the job to conform to their talents, skills, 'voice' and own leadings from God.

It could be really fun... then again it could be really scary!

Thanks for the post.

[Bob K]

At 64 years of age, I've seen a fair amount of changes in the churches in which I've been involved. Through a para-church ministry in which I was active for over 20 years, I have known and worked with people in dozens of churches, of many denominations. One of the things that I have loved the most is the diversity of God's Kingdom. It's amazing how people who "do church" so differently can agree on the really Core basics of faith. I may have a hard time understanding "post-modernism" and "emerging church," but I'm all for anything that reaches people for Christ.

[Mike McVey]

Scott,

I know this is a few months late, but I only found your blog last night by accident.

Being a pastor of a tiny church (15 is a good Sunday, 20 is jaw-opening), I really struggle with this specific entry. Though I have yet to start an M.Div., I still try to read widely and use the education from SNU to help condition me for the church that doesn't exist. The problem is that if I had an M.Div. or any further education, I would no longer be able to pastor this church. Except for the other pastors in town, along with some lawyers and doctors, there is nobody here that has done any graduate work.

The church I pastor, along with most on our district, are unable to pay us hardly any salary. This wouldn't be a problem if I could get a job to supplement income, but Pennsylvania is very different from OKC and Dallas. The only degree jobs available are specialized degrees. My other option is to work for a fast food chain, which might happen soon.

House churches are great, but for whatever reason, our restart still has a church building, along with the bills and taxes that come with it. The market is so bad here that we can't sell the building for probably a tenth of what it might be worth (which isn't very much).

I think the future of where the church is going over the next 25 years is truly awesome, but I wonder about all the local churches like mine who will get lost in the shuffle. I'm not trying to be a whiner, because I really am encouraged by what you have to say... until I apply it to my context.

Grace & Peace,